Roki Sasaki will be eligible to sign with Major League Baseball teams during a unique nine-day window starting Wednesday, a situation that has significant implications for Latin American teenagers whose multi-million dollar unofficial agreements are on hold while Sasaki makes his decision.
The Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres are considered the front-runners to sign Sasaki, with the Toronto Blue Jays also in the mix.
Sasaki, a highly sought-after 23-year-old right-handed pitcher, could have secured a nine-figure deal in Major League Baseball if he stayed healthy and waited until after the 2026 season to be posted by his Japanese club. Yoshinobu Yamamoto took a similar path, eventually signing a 10-year, $325 million contract with the Dodgers in December 2023, a record for a pitcher.
Because Sasaki is under 25 and has not played six seasons in Nippon Professional Baseball, he is classified as an international amateur by MLB. This limits him to a minor league contract, governed by strict spending caps established through collective bargaining agreements. These rules were implemented in 2012, with a hard cap introduced in 2017.
Players from outside the 50 U.S. states, Puerto Rico, and Canada are all considered part of the international amateur free agency system, and Sasaki is included in the 2025 group, which mostly consists of players born between Sept. 1, 2007, and Aug. 31, 2008. The signing period officially begins on Wednesday morning.
Sasaki has a short timeframe to sign with an MLB team due to a separate 45-day posting window required by the MLB-NPB agreement. He must make his decision by 4 p.m. Central on Jan. 23, or his rights will remain with Japan’s Chiba Lotte Marines in the Pacific League.
The majority of international amateur free agents are young Latin American players. Last year, 546 international amateurs signed from the Dominican Republic, 365 from Venezuela, 52 from Mexico, and smaller numbers from countries like Panama (26), Colombia (24), Curacao (11), the Bahamas (9), Nicaragua (7), Australia (6), Taiwan (6), Aruba (5), Brazil (2), Japan (2), and Costa Rica, Germany, Haiti, and Uganda (1 each).
Although the 2025 class can’t officially sign contracts until Wednesday, handshake agreements are common in regions such as the Dominican Republic, Colombia, and Venezuela. These informal agreements are sometimes made years in advance with players as young as 14, promising them millions despite their impoverished backgrounds.
Each MLB team’s bonus pool ranges from about $5.1 to $7.6 million, and signing Sasaki could potentially drain an entire team’s budget. This might force teams to back out of handshake agreements with other players to free up space in their pool. However, finding another team for these dropped players might be tough, as other clubs are likely holding back significant portions of their pools for similar deals.
Last year, 290 contracts were finalized as soon as the signing window opened. This year, teams seem to be delaying agreements in hopes of securing Sasaki, possibly even postponing deals until 2026. Some players, like Dominican shortstop Darell Morel, have already adjusted their plans, choosing to sign with Pittsburgh instead of the Dodgers, as reported by Baseball America.
Each team has a set amount it can spend on international amateur free agents based on factors like their previous year’s record and spending on major league free agents. For 2025, eight teams, including the Athletics, Cincinnati, and Miami, have the highest bonus pool of about $7.6 million. Six teams have around $6.9 million, and twelve others have about $6.3 million. The Dodgers and San Francisco have the smallest pools at $5.1 million.
Starting Wednesday, teams can trade up to 60% of their signing bonus pool, allowing them to increase their allotment by up to $250,000 at a time, with the option to trade their entire remaining pool in one move.
Sasaki is a top-tier talent, already proven in high-level professional leagues and international tournaments. If he were a professional free agent, his value would be in the hundreds of millions. However, like Shohei Ohtani in 2017, Sasaki prioritizes playing at the highest level over maximizing his initial MLB contract.
In the 2023 World Baseball Classic, Sasaki threw 21 of 66 pitches over 100 mph against the Czech Republic, reaching 101.9 mph, and topped 100 mph 26 times in a semifinal against Mexico, including a 101.8 mph strikeout of big leaguer Randy Arozarena.
Last season, Sasaki posted a 10-5 record with a 2.35 ERA, striking out 129 batters in 111 innings despite dealing with shoulder inflammation. Over his four seasons with the Chiba Lotte Marines, he has a 29-15 record with a 2.10 ERA and threw a perfect game in April 2022.
If Sasaki makes a major league roster in 2025, he would earn the league’s minimum salary of $760,000. He could then become eligible for arbitration after the 2027 season and free agency in 2030.
Due to the posting system, the Marines will receive a small release fee—25% of Sasaki’s signing bonus. Shohei Ohtani went through a similar system when he signed with the Angels in 2018 for $2.315 million. Ohtani’s early salaries were much lower than his market value, but he earned substantial pay through arbitration before agreeing to a record 10-year, $700 million deal with the Dodgers in 2024.
